English Debate: Can United Afford Another Slow Start?

Manchester United are already two points behind Chelsea (and the other two members of the Premier League’s Big Four). Is that significant after only one match? After all, United are famed for coming good after sluggish starts. But does the strength of the competition now mean it is risky to allow a rival much of an early advantage? Graham Lister considers the evidence…

A feature of Manchester United’s dominance of the Premier League era - they’ve won 10 of the 16 titles contested since the League was formed in 1992 - has been their propensity to start sluggishly and gradually gather momentum, putting on the after-burners in the second half of the season. Manager Sir Alex Ferguson has revelled in United’s come-from-behind title successes, particularly those of 1995-96 and 2002-03, when they managed to overhaul Newcastle and Arsenal, respectively. They did something similar last season, seeing the Gunners set the early pace but closing the gap and eventually overtaking them while holding Chelsea at bay - just.

Ferguson has boasted that United like to make things difficult for themselves and win trophies the hard way; but it’s a high-risk strategy and the margins for error are getting tighter all the time. United may have defied conventional wisdom by allowing rivals to set the pace and then trying (often successfully) to reel them in. But playing that particular version of the hare and the tortoise depends not only on your own ability to come from behind with perfect timing, but also on your rivals’ susceptibility to stumble at the crucial moment.

Last season, United got away with it to a certain extent. In the end of course they deserved to win the title; whoever wins it deserves it over 38 matches. But they should never have been allowed a sniff after Arsenal led the way until March. The Gunners’ fatal wobble - four successive draws followed by a defeat that turned a five point lead into a three-point deficit - gave United the opening they seized with both hands thanks to their own consistency.

Arsene Wenger’s side had surprised all the pundits by taking pole position early on, turning their sublime football into winning football. They lost only three games all season, two fewer than United, but too many draws cost them the title. The cynics expected Arsenal’s challenge to falter at some point, because the squad was young, relatively inexperienced, and lacked genuine strength in depth to cope with injuries to key players. Those critics were ultimately proved right, and United were able to take full advantage. Chelsea were in some internal disarray but still managed to push the Red Devils all the way to the final day.

Fast forward to this season, and although one match day is no real basis on which to make predictions, there is a warning already for United. They have added nobody to their squad over the summer, and have also lost assistant manager Carlos Queiroz, which should not be under-estimated. They went into their first game, at home to Newcastle United, without Cristiano Ronaldo, Nani, Carlos Tevez, Owen Hargreaves and Anderson, for various reasons, and were held to a 1-1 draw by a side they crushed 6-0 in the corresponding fixture in January. Failure to strengthen their squad (to date) was reflected in a United bench that comprised Rodrigo Possebon, Rafael da Silva, Jonny Evans and Darron Gibson: hardly household names, even in their own houses. Ryan Giggs and Michael Carrick were injured during the match, so United’s resources will be further stretched in the opening phase of the season.

In contrast, Chelsea swept FA Cup winners Portsmouth aside with almost contemptuous ease at Stamford Bridge. The star of their 4-0 winning show was new signing Deco, followed by another summer recruit, Jose Bosingwa. And new manager Luiz Felipe Scolari, more self-assured than his haunted predecessor Avram Grant, and with a formidable CV, had the likes of Paolo Ferreira, Florent Malouda, Shaun Wright-Phillips, Wayne Bridge and Alex on the Blues’ bench. The absence or unavailability of Michael Essien, Didier Drogba, Salomon Kalou, Juliano Belletti and Andriy Shevchenko was scarcely noticed.

There was an interesting contrast too in the managers’ post-match comments. Ferguson was rationalising dropped points, Scolari relishing a tactical triumph.

Fergie said: “…As soon as we lost Ryan Giggs to a hamstring injury and Michael Carrick with an ankle…we lost a bit of our experience in midfield. We had possession of the ball but didn't make it count at times - but in light of the people we had missing, it was a creditable result for us."

Scolari’s observation was more bullish: "Portsmouth didn't think we would play like we did and we were more aggressive than last season. I think they were surprised by our team. I only give the players the freedom to play and allow them to express their style."

The point is that Chelsea have started with a bang, and have an exceptionally strong squad - one that is arguably stronger than United’s. There are still 37 games to go so it is pointless trying to draw hard conclusions at this stage. If history has taught us anything it is that you can never write United off. But the implication is that maybe the Red Devils can ill-afford to concede an early lead to Chelsea in this season’s title race. Let’s not forget either that Arsenal and Liverpool also won their openers, albeit less emphatically than Chelsea did, so United are already behind all three of their biggest rivals in the race.

Hardly a crisis at Old Trafford, then, but winning their upcoming League games could prove crucial to United’s bid to retain their title. Particularly when you recall that when Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea won consecutive titles in 2004-05 and 2005-06, they hit the front from the start and stayed there; United never held top spot in either of those campaigns.

This weekend, United are at Portsmouth (on Monday evening), so there will be an opportunity to measure the Red Devils and Chelsea against the yardstick of Pompey, after taking home advantage into account. By then the Blues will have taken on Wigan at the JJB Stadium (Sunday lunchtime). Arsenal are at Fulham (Saturday evening) and Liverpool host Middlesbrough, who burst Tottenham’s bubble on Day One. The pressure’s building already….

Meanwhile, the following table shows how Manchester United have started each of the previous Premier League campaigns, highlighting the points they garnered from their first dive fixtures, and the date at which they first claimed top spot in the table. An asterisk indicates a title-winning campaign…

Graham Lister